In a dynamic industry such as ours, there is little we can be certain of. But one thing is for sure - we're never short of a pundit or two. In this edition of TWNetwork, Telstra Wholesale's General Manager of Competitive Intelligence, Martin Quadroy, has reviewed the latest industry commentary and shares eight of the telecommunications industry's most talked about predictions.
"What each of these industry predictions has in common is that they are extensions of macro trends we're already seeing in the market place today," says Martin.
"Does this mean every single one of these predictions will come true over the next five to ten years? Probably not."
“But what we did notice is the emergence of three overriding themes – those of convergence, the connected home and the virtual nature of living and working.”
1.Fast broadband will enable lateral applications
Entertainment, power and communications will be linked by broadband in the connected home.
2. Smart grids will become a reality
Smart grid technology monitors electricity supply across distribution networks using telecommunications technology. It helps integrate renewable energy into the grid and gives consumers information on their energy usage. This can translate into greater efficiencies for the utilities provider and lower cost.
3. Communications will converge
Communications consumption will converge making the distinction between fixed and wireless largely opaque for end-users. Telecommunications companies will instead think in terms of layers of broadband connectivity.
4. WiMAX will remain niche in Australia
WiMAX’s best chance for success is in niche deployments in Australia such as CBD metro deployments or contained regional areas as is currently the case - and all fixed.
5. SMART players will dominate 4G
The economics of LTE networks and the importance of the very rich services and content provided over them will drive a number of changes in the mobile ecosystem. SMART is an acronym for Services, Management, Applications, Relationships and Technology. Consumers will buy their handsets, network services and content from a single SMART provider with a strong brand and a focus on customer service.
6. Electric cars will be telecoms customers
Electric car charging networks cannot work without millions of fixed and mobile telecommunications connections. Consider 12 million vehicles, each with their own 3G chip, and many millions of charging points and battery exchange stations, all with their own fibre connections.
7. Mobile payments will be big business
The mobile device will largely replace both cash and credit cards, with mobile networks facilitating many consumer transactions.
8. Telecommunications companies will embrace cloud computing
Cloud computing moves applications and data out of local hard drives and into the internet where they are hosted on behalf of users. To avoid becoming nothing more than a utility input to cloud service providers, carriers will become cloud service providers themselves.
In compiling this list, Testra Wholesale researched and analysed an array of industry commentary, including newspapers, online magazines, expert interviews, and industry analyst houses such as Ovum, IDC, Market Clarity, Gartner and Yankee; plus a variety of government sites, including the US Dept of Energy, ACMA, DBCDE and ABS. These predictions reflect industry views and are not the views of Telstra.
